Tuesday, May 11, 2010

My Premise-Checking Habit

What is the difference between a philosopher and a scientist? When the philosopher comes to a contradiction, she checks her premises. The scientist does not wait for a contradiction.

Maybe. My own premise-checking habit predates my career choice. When I first realized that some grownups believed, and told me, things that were false, I decided that I would rather doubt a hundred truths than believe one falsehood. Later, on encountering the derivation of Archimedes' Principle, I was so taken with the realization that the facts of reality not only could be observed, but could be understood by reason, that I decided to make this my future job. It helped me to know that as a scientist, I would never need to pretend that I knew, when I doubted.

Later, when I began to read the work of Ayn Rand, I was struck by the similarity between her approach to knowledge and that of the scientists I had met. The scientists knew that certain assumptions had to be made for scientific investigation of nature to be possible; Ayn Rand pointed out that these "assumptions" were really axioms that could not be contradicted without self-exclusion, which made them certain. I already knew that in science the results of replicated measurements comparing an observed value with an external standard were "practically certain;" from Ayn Rand I learned the principles that make them contextually certain. Laws that exactly describe some set of contextually certain measurements are also contextually certain, in the context of the precision and range of the measurements that such laws describe. Logically necessary deductions from already certain premises are contextually certain in the intersection of the contexts of their premises. As long as one tracks context in one's deductions and derivations, one can be certain about what one knows with contextual certainty; and one can know in what contexts that which one knows is certain. Everything outside those contexts is rightly open to doubt, regardless of how many people think it true or wish it were true.

Later, as a student of cognitive psychology, I learned about confirmation bias: the universal human tendency to notice and think about evidence that confirms one's prior beliefs and hypotheses, and to ignore and evade evidence to the contrary. I trained myself, as rigorously as I could, in the habit of going against my own confirmation bias; of looking for experiments and observations that would produce, if such evidence existed, evidence against the hypotheses that I myself advanced and wanted to be true. And, like many in the human sciences, I worked on methods for guarding the process of science against confirmation bias and other biases common to all men, including scientists such as myself.

One of my PhD mentors was Ray Hyman. Ray studied physical scientists who had become interested in "psychical" (later called "paranormal") phenomena. Physical scientists, like Objectivists, pride themselves on thinking conceptually, yet grounding even their most abstract ideas in observable and measurable fact. Yet physical scientists, ignorant of their own confirmation bias, were always the first to be fooled by "evidence" that invariably disappeared under the lens of bias-proof methods worked out by cognitive psychologists. More recently, those of us who look at the work of physical scientists through the lens of cognitive psychology were treated to "climategate:" the ultimate spectacle of physical scientists intoxicated with confirmation bias, and keeping their data secret lest their hypotheses be debunked, as alleged "paranormal phenomena" have been, if subjected to the methods of bias-proof analysis that have become standard in the human sciences.

In Objectivist circles, it is customary to give to ideas held by fellow Objectivists the benefit of the doubt. Surely, the reasoning goes, one's fellow Objectivists have sound epistemology, and therefore are less likely to be mistaken than non-Objectivists. Unfortunately, there is no evidence that Ayn Rand knew what we now know about confirmation bias. My guess is that she didn't, because she would have advised Objectivists to guard against it, if only she had known. And so some Objectivists, as I recently found out, regard my own attitude - that I would rather doubt a hundred truths than believe one falsehood - as a flaw of character. As one put it in a letter, 'it indicates a juvenile "iconoclastic" mentality rather than a strive (maybe "a striving?") for knowledge.'

The iconoclasts were early Christian fanatics who defaced artwork, lest statues and paintings receive admiration that the iconoclasts reserved for God. How one gets from an observation of habitual premise-checking to a diagnosis of "iconoclasm" I don't know. What I do know, is that no idea should be exempt from doubt because of who holds it. Even if that person is an Objectivist. Even if it is an idea held by many Objectivists. If this be "iconoclasm," make the most of it.

6 comments:

Francis Luong (Franco) said...

A most unusual post, but a good read. I enjoyed it.

Perhaps a longer piece on confirmation bias for Objectivists is warranted?

Anonymous said...

"In Objectivist circles, it is customary to give to ideas held by fellow Objectivists the benefit of the doubt."

ROTFL. I've known many kinds of society, and there exist social circles of Marxists and Anglican clergymen who remain more open to new evidence than the majority of self-described Objectivists.

Your own virtues are admirable, and I agree deeply with everything you praise here, but you extend the compliment of your standards too easily to allies who have not earned them.

As for climate change, time and evidence will soon show who is right on this issue, if it has not done so already. And if it is shown that Objectivism and libertarianism have in fact systematically adopted a false factual position for according to the needs of political ideology, then the damage to their credibility in the eyes of people who care about reason and science (and about human beings) will be vast and irreparable. It will demonstrate to the literate public that Objectivism has become subject to the confirmation biases of social classes with a stake in "capitalism" and that in the last analysis this allegiance is deeper than allegiance to Enlightenment philosophical convictions.

Michael Clendenin Miller said...

Thank you Adam for the excellent post.

And thank you Alice for adorning it with a prototypical confirmation bias of your own, via which you have confused Objectivism with acts of "self-described Objectivists" alleged beyond your ken. Objectivism is a philosophy. It has nothing to say about global warming. Objectivists are people, none of whose thoughts about global warming or anything else (including the philosophy) have any bearing on the validity of Objectivism itself.

And your accusation of Objectivists as tending to rigidity more likely admits to your failure to completely assimilate the principle Adam just finished illuminating, namely, that knowledge is contextual. Holding that notion, which one would have to in order to qualify to be labeled "an Objectivist," necessitates the rigid self-discipline to refrain from resting one's knowledge on anything other than demonstrable facts — a very rigid position indeed.

It is that very position, however, that frees the Objectivist to welcome all new evidence of any kind, because contextual knowledge can never be disproved by new evidence, so it can never be regarded as a threat. Furthermore, the philosophy's demand that all knowledge be based on evidence gives them an insatiable appetite for it.

As for your subjectivist Marxists and intrinsicist Anglican clergymen, their openness to new evidence is cheap and insincere at best, for they do not give the evidence of demonstrable facts any credence in the first place as a matter of their philosophical principles.

Anonymous said...

So what precisely is the Ayn Rand Institute going to say if it turns out that it has been loudly advocating a scientifically false premise while claiming to represent a hyperpure strain of rational philosophy? The monolithic climate skeptic position isn't peculiar to the ARI, but general to all substrains of Randian society of which I am aware. If you're the last person to get the facts straight on a given issue, it suggests that you structurally didn't care to make genuine rational inquiries on the matter. If Objectivists were what they claimed to be in terms of a uniquely rational approach to life then they would show some tendency to have more accurate and enlightened opinions than an otherwise similarly situated alternative movement. When, in fact, Objectivists have been among the last educated people to jump on the bandwagon of reality on any number of issues, from cigarette smoking to the moral status of homosexuality. That is the telltale sign of ideological thinking, in Marx's sense of the term.

You're totally right that Rand's ideas are not proven wrong by the nature of the world which claims her inheritance. However, the nature of the world which claims Rand's inheritance does entirely reflect upon itself. It will thus be very interesting indeed to see how the results come out on the global warming issue. If climate change turns out to be real, those idealistic youth who approach Objectivism for its vision of human life will stop coming, or at the very least demand a thorough accounting as to how such an epistemological failure was allowed to happen.

Please enjoy your "rigid self-discipline", and let me assure you that I have no objections if you entirely monopolise this alleged virtue. I do not like what it does to my soul.

Michael Clendenin Miller said...

Alice,

You still don't get it. The Objectivists' contextual knowledge of the probabilities of a pending global warming disaster are necessarily restrained to evidence that is verifiable now. Their claim is not that no such thing could ever occur, but rather that the evidence that it will and what would be the cause is, at this point, grossly insufficient. If the current dire speculations were ever to actually occur in the future, the progressive changes between now and then would be accompanied by ample evidence that bona fide Objectivists would embrace on contact.

Any future mind that would look back critically at present Objectivists and condemn them for not embracing unfounded speculations as if they were facts would be compromising their own rational capacity just as you are yours now.

Anonymous said...

Whatever. Thomists and Marxists also dismiss their own historical records with the claim that their embarassments leave the one true faith untouched. Meanwhile more rational observers watch the behaviour of allegedly ideal systems in empirical practice.